Summary

The chart shows a very pessimistic view of investment in the UK as a result of Brexit. On average, over three-quarters of companies headquartered in the displayed nations have stated their intention to move at least some of their investments out of the UK as a result of Brexit. This is most marked in France, where 81% of polled companies stated an intention to disinvest in the UK. Although the companies of Spain are least likely to disinvest from the UK (70%), the highest proportion of firms looking to increase their investment in the UK post-Brexit hail from Italy.

 

What does the chart show?

The main chart shows the results of a survey by UBS of the sentiments of 600 Eurozone corporations with regard to the impact of Brexit on their investment plans in the UK. The precise question posed was ‘How much investment capacity are you likely to pull from the UK as a result of Brexit?’, meaning that no differentiation between ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit scenarios can be asserted.

 

Why is the chart interesting?

UBS reports that more than one tenth of their surveyed pool of corporations had stated an intention to leave the UK entirely following Britain’s exit from the EU. The results of the survey showed two main trends: the larger the firm, the greater the proportion of their business they planned to relocate post-Brexit; and that the stated desire to relocate was more pronounced among those that deal in industrials and materials compared to consumer firms.

Some in the financial sector are anxious over the potential loss of ‘passporting’ rights, although some observers argue that this would not benefit the EU and would not be in their interest to pursue, as it would rather see a large number of jobs moved to New York or Hong Kong, where banks enjoy less regulation than in Europe’s financial centres.

Although this survey can help reveal how some business leaders feel at present, it may also provide business leaders frustrated by the uncertainty, a way to express their views on the tenor and pace of negotiations and, in doing so, potentially influence their outcome.

 

Posted by Aimée Allam