by Damon de Laszlo, ERC Chairman
Since September the pattern of worries that we had settled into following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been suspended by Hamas’s lightening attack on Israel. Two States – one large, one small – headed by terrorist leaders seem to show that the world order has taken a dramatic change for the worse. The two World Wars of the last century moved recent history from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana. In recent history America, the dominant world power with its Western allies, has steadily withdrawn from its role as world policeman. A political lack of “will to govern” combined with public excitement in military adventure has meant that successful military intervention has been followed by ignominious withdrawal. As the popular enjoyment of the spectacle is replaced by the discovery that the governing and re-building of a country is hard, tedious and expensive work.
Is the lacking ability of Western Governments to do long-term strategic thinking compounded by the development of the World Wide Web? Better communications have historically brought great advantage to government and enterprise. Road, rail, shipping and telecommunications enabled enormous growth in industry and trade, enhancing food security as well as improving general well-being. The development of the World Wide Web has also brought enormous benefit, it has also produced an interesting side effect: The phenomenal increase of “news?”, the human desire for information, coupled with the excitement of the feeling of being the first to know, means that unedited and unverified News in the form of word-bites and snippets circulate, creating a fog of information, important along with unimportant, making it difficult to discern reality from illusion, and distinguish between trivia and/or amusing content and malicious intent.
The commercial interests that have driven prosperity and advancement over the last few centuries have in the most successful countries been regulated and constrained by democratic governments. Regulation has always been needed to keep markets stable and prevent monopoly. The rule of law laid down by elected representatives of the people has worked well where the majority of those elected have a good understanding of business, trade and commerce. As the world has become increasingly connected and complex, the number of elected representatives with experience and understanding of these economic fundamentals has proportionately diminished. Also, the ability of an electorate to grasp the major issues affecting their prosperity is confused by the enormous amount of “news”, dominated by trivia and items designed to provoke emotional rather than reasoned responses.
Today, we face two major military crises apart from the very serious problems that face the world’s economy. The Russian terrorism being perpetrated in Ukraine, while unspeakable, does not seem likely to expand beyond its current geographical boundaries. The terrorism perpetrated by Hamas on Israel is far more dangerous as it could easily spread from being geographically contained to dragging in surrounding countries in what would basically be an ideological and religious conflict. In all crises, there is a tendency to look at the ‘here and now’ and speculate on the future without looking at and understanding the events that led up to the crisis. Few histories are written that give you the cause of an event rather than the result and result histories are usually written by the successful parties. Henry Kissinger’s Diplomacy
is one of the few histories that take you up to the causes of wars and conflicts in the last three hundred years. Without understanding the causes, it is going to be difficult to resolve the current crises. From a current standpoint it seems that both conflicts at best will be resolved by the exhaustion of one or both parties in the conflict. Worryingly, there is little discussion at the moment on how to resolve the primary causes and the febrile atmosphere of accusation and counterclaim and the cranking up of the military machines make any predictions highly uncertain.
War and terrorism are compounding the serious world economic problems that we are facing.
Damon de Laszlo
24th October 2023