The annual Clash of the Titans events feature three thought-leaders in economics in differing career fields giving their forecasts for what will happen to the UK economy as we progress from 2021 into 2022.
The Economic Research Council hosted its 10th annual Clash of the Titans economic forecasting event live via Zoom on 13th December 2021. Our Titans this year are Linda Yueh – Fellow in Economics at the University of Oxford, Professor Douglas McWilliams – Executive Deputy Chairman at CEBR, and Dilip Shah – Clash of the Titans best overall performer.
We shall track their performance over the course of the following year, and we’ll announce the winner at next year’s Clash.
Below are this year’s Titans’ biographies and their predictions. At the bottom, you can see who is in the lead once the competition is underway…
Dr Linda Yueh – Economist, Broadcaster, and Author
Dr Linda Yueh is Fellow in Economics, St Edmund Hall, Oxford University and Adjunct Professor of Economics, London Business School. She is also Visiting Professor at LSE IDEAS and Chair of the LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission. Her book, The Great Economists: How Their Ideas Can Help Us Today, was The Times’ Best Business Books of 2018. Aside from her academic work, Linda is also a TV and radio presenter, including for BBC Radio 4 and the World Service. She has been Chief Business Correspondent for BBC News as well as Economics Editor at Bloomberg TV.
| Q4 ’21 | Q1 ’22 | Q2 ’22 | Q3 ’22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Inflation | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% |
| Unemployment | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| Interest Rates | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Average Earnings | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| Sterling/Euro Low | 1.1 | |||
Professor Douglas McWilliams – Executive Deputy Chairman, CEBR
Douglas is one of the world’s leading economists and was chosen in 2012 from over 300 applicants to become the Gresham Professor of Commerce.
His Gresham lecture series ‘The world’s greatest ever economic event’ looking at the impact of globalisation on the Western economies attracted widespread attention and large audiences. He covers all aspects of economics but is best known for his work in forecasting, the economics of the IT and telecoms sectors and transport economics and for his knowledge of the Far East economies. He works with clients who are particularly looking for an economist with a public presence to help make their case. After setting up the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), he was the Chief Executive for 20 years, and Executive Chairman. Previously he was Chief Economic Adviser to the Confederation of British Industry and Chief Economist for IBM UK.
| Q4 ’21 | Q1 ’22 | Q2 ’22 | Q3 ’22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Inflation | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Interest Rates | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Average Earnings | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
| Sterling/Euro Low | 1.08 | |||
Dilip Shah – Clash of the Titans Best Performer
Dilip Shah has been an economist for 15 years working in both the public and private sector. As an entrant of the public Clash of the Titans forecasting competition for six years, Dilip has excelled with his forecasts. He has won the overall competition on two occasions, beating all previous professional titans and hundreds of public entrants. For five out of six years Dilip has ended up in the top ten with forecasts that barely differ from the real data at all.
| Q4 ’21 | Q1 ’22 | Q2 ’22 | Q3 ’22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Inflation | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Interest Rates | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Average Earnings | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| Sterling/Euro Low | 1.15 | |||
Titans’ Standings
| 1. | = | Dilip Shah | 167 (3) |
| 2. | = | Douglas McWilliams | 215 (4) |
| 3. | = | Linda Yueh | 257 (2) |
Actual Data
This will be updated as data is released.
| Q4 ’21 | Q1 ’22 | Q2 ’22 | Q3 ’22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| Inflation | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 10% |
| Unemployment | 4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Interest Rates | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| Average Earnings | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% |
| Sterling/Euro Low | 1.12 (28th September) | |||
Average Predictions
This will be updated as as soon as all entries are received and the competition entry period closes on 30th January.
| Q4 ’21 | Q1 ’22 | Q2 ’22 | Q3 ’22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Inflation | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Interest Rates | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Average Earnings | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Sterling/Euro Low | 1.12 | |||