The 9th Annual

Economic Forecasting Competition 

in association with KPMG

In association with KPMG, the Economic Research Council is running its ninth annual Clash of the Titans economic forecasting competition, which brings together three thought-leaders in economics in the UK. The Clash of the Titans is an unrivalled opportunity to compete against economic experts’ predictions for 2020.  The winners of this year’s competition from our professional forecasters (Linda Yueh, Nina Skero and Dilip Shah) as well as the public competition will be announced at the event at the end of 2020. You are invited to enter the forecasting competition below. You must predict figures for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, earnings growth and interest rates on a quarterly basis to 1 decimal place. The competition is gladiatorial and fun- the professionals and the public compete over the year, with the winning titan and leading public entrant crowned at the event. Remember- you don’t have to be exactly right, just more right than anyone else!

Our titans and their predictions are detailed below…

Linda Yueh– Economist, Broadcaster and Author

Professor Linda Yueh is Fellow in Economics, St Edmund Hall, Oxford University and Adjunct Professor of Economics, London Business School. She is also Visiting Professor at LSE IDEAS and Chair of the LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission. Her latest book, The Great Economists: How Their Ideas Can Help Us Today, was The Times’s Best Business Books of 2018.

Watch Linda give her predictions below:

  2019 2020
  Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
GDP Growth

(Quarterly, % change)

0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Inflation

(CPI All Items, % change YoY)

1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1%
Unemployment

(% rate, all 16 and over)

3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Interest Rates

(official Bank Rate)

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Earnings Growth

(Excl bonuses, % change YoY)

3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9%
Lowest Sterling/Euro Exchange rate 

(lowest point between 31st Jan – 31st Oct)

1.16

Nina Skero – Chief Executive , CEBR

Born in Belgrade in 1990, Nina joined Cebr in 2014 as an Economist. Over her five years at the company she advanced through a number of positions (Senior Economist, Managing Economist, Head of Macroeconomics, and Director). Her research has covered a number of areas including housing, Brexit preparations, the consumer economy and international development.

Given the high profile of her work, Nina regularly engages in media appearances, including live commentary on BBC News, Bloomberg TV and Sky News as well as speaking engagements on national and regional radio stations. Her commentary has been featured in leading publications such as The Times, Financial Times, The Guardian, Bloomberg, City A.M. and Daily Mail. She has become one of the UK’s leading voices in the economics space, regularly speaking at conferences around the country and the world. Before joining Cebr, Nina worked as an analyst at an industrial technology company, focusing on demand forecasting. She graduated summa cum laude from Babson College in 2012 with a double concentration in Economics and Global Business Management. She also holds an MSc in Political Economy of Europe from the London School of Economics.

Watch Nina give her predictions below:

  2019 2020
  Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
GDP Growth

(Quarterly, % change)

0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6%
Inflation

(CPI All Items, % change YoY)

1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Unemployment

(% rate, all 16 and over)

3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1%
Interest Rates

(official Bank Rate)

0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0%
Earnings Growth

(Excl bonuses, % change YoY)

3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%
Lowest Sterling/Euro Exchange rate 

(lowest point between 31st Jan – 31st Oct)

1.14

 

Dilip Shah, the competition’s overall best performer!

Dilip Shah has been an economist for 15 years working in both public and private sector. As an entrant of the public Clash of the Titans forecasting competition for six years, Dilip has excelled with his forecasts. He has won the overall competition on two occasions, beating all previous professional titans and hundreds of public entrants. For five out of six years Dilip has ended up in the top ten with forecasts that barely differ from the real data at all.

Watch Dilip give his predictions below:

  2019 2020
  Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
GDP Growth

(Quarterly, % change)

0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Inflation

(CPI All Items, % change YoY)

1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1%
Unemployment

(% rate, all 16 and over)

3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Interest Rates

(official Bank Rate)

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Earnings Growth

(Excl bonuses, % change YoY)

3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9%
Lowest Sterling/Euro Exchange rate 

(lowest point between 31st Jan – 31st Oct)

1.16

Now enter your predictions below!

Posted by Aimée Allam